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RIEB, Kobe University Site Map Access 日本語 Home Research & Education Publications RIEB Discussion Paper Series (English) RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2013-31 RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2013-31 Title Managerial Discretion over Their Initial Earnings Forecasts Abstract We examine the existence and incentive of managerial discretion in Japanese firms when their initial management earnings forecasts are issued simultaneously with their earnings announcements. While most prior studies have examined the discretionary behaviors used to meet earnings forecasts at the end of the fiscal year, our study focuses on the forecast innovations that are considered important forecasts-based earnings benchmark at the earnings announcement. First, we find that managers engage in forecasts management to avoid reporting negative forecast innovations. Second, we find that firms in higher product market competition are more likely to conduct forecasts management. Finally, our additional analyses indicate that, on average, forecast innovations are informative for stock investors, but investors can discount forecasts with higher forecasts management. Further analysis shows that managers conducting forecasts management for their initial earnings forecasts are more likely to revise their forecasts downward during the fiscal year to meet their earnings forecasts, but will not use discretionary accruals for this purpose. Keywords Management forecasts, Forecasts management, Forecast innovations, Product market competition, Japan JEL Classification M41 Inquiries Takuya IWASAKI Faculty of Commerce, Kansai University, Japan Norio KITAGAWA Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe University, Japan Akinobu SHUTO School of Management, Yale University, USA and Research Institute for Economics and Business AdministrationKobe UniversityRokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe657-8501 JapanPhone: +81-78-803-7036FAX: +81-78-803-7059 About RIEB Faculty Seminars at RIEB Research & Education Sections Kobe University Site Policy Site Map Access Contact Us Copyright©1996-2018 Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University. All Rights Reserved.